May 8, 2008

by Jac Coyne, Lacrosse Magazine Online Staff

Springfield (11-6) at Cortland (15-1) - 1 p.m.
How well was Springfield's Jake Beebe playing on Wednesday evening against Kean? "Tonight, I was really in the zone," said Beebe after he had scored five goals and assisted on five others in the Pride's 17-2 romp. It was a magical night for the junior, but if Keith Bugbee's troops are going to advance past Saturday, he'll need career performances from about half the team.

Not to say it can't happen, but Cortland is a bear of a match-up for Springfield. The Pride can level the playing field by, well, keeping things even. Springfield is pretty good about not taking a lot of penalties, and they'll have to keep fouls to a minimum against the Red Dragons, who are cooking along at a 41 percent clip in man-up situations. Billy Fuchs and Brian Krol have netted six EMO tallies apiece this season, and that's not even factoring in the exquisite play of SUNYAC player of the year Ryan Heath.

Since suffering their only loss of the season, Cortland has played 11 games and won them by an average of 14.8 goals per game. The Red Dragons won't reach that average, but they'll have plenty to advance.

LMO Predicts: Cortland 16, Springfield 6

Bowdoin (12-6) at Middlebury (12-2) - 1 p.m.
Just prior to the NESCAC semifinals I wrote a story about the change in Middlebury's fortunes from last year to this. In response, I received a good-natured email from Bowdoin coach Tom McCabe that ended with, "Thanks for the fuel!" He then read an excerpt of the story to his team before the Polar Bears game against Wesleyan - a game Bowdoin won to lock up an NCAA berth.

Well, I'm here to throw some more gas on the fire. While the two teams did play into two overtimes in their first meeting - won by Middlebury, 12-11 - Bowdoin will be hard-pressed to win in Vermont. The Polar Bears, as evidenced by their 11-5 win over Mt. Ida on Wednesday, are not a potent offensive team. They rely on a strong defense, an efficient offense, and hope to have enough at the end. Bowdoin will be looking at its doppelganger on Saturday, as the Panthers utilize a similar tactic, and McCabe believes he matches up well with Middlebury.

But Middlebury has a pair of "go-to" scorers in Mike Stone and Jim Cabrera, something Bowdoin lacks for the most part (although I think Owen Smith could develop into one). This game will be close, but in the fourth quarter and/or overtime, the Panthers will have the advantage.

LMO Predicts: Middlebury 10, Bowdoin 8

Williams (10-5) at Ithaca (15-2) - 1 p.m.
"Michael Gerbush was very good again in goal and our offense took advantage of some situations," said Williams head coach George McCormack about his Ephs winning the NESCACs. "Mostly I was impressed with how well the team maintained its composure." This snippet should give Ithaca some pause because two key ingredients for a successful postseason team are a hot goalie, which Gerbush certainly is, and a team with composure. Will that be enough to get the NCAA-inexperienced Ephs past the seasoned Bombers?

I was initially going to pick the upset, and not just because I'm a NESCAC homer, but as I looked over the Ithaca roster there are just too many problems. Williams has not seen a two-headed monster like Matt Nelligan (46g, 20a) and Logan Bobzien (31g, 40a) this season, and it could be argued that Bomber goalie Ben Connery is just as hot as Gerbush after making 26 saves in the Empire 8 championship game.

Williams should be pleased with their accomplishments this spring and this will be a great stepping stone for next year. But the ride stops here.

LMO Predicts: Ithaca 14, Williams 8

Haverford (11-4) at Cabrini (16-2) - 1 p.m.
In the first game between these two teams, Cabrini managed to record an impressive, 13-8 road victory over Haverford on April 16. The Cavaliers had their way for the most part, but the Fords have a chance to change the final outcome if they can play with a bit more discipline. Haverford committed four penalties in the second quarter alone - three of the one-minute variety - and Cabrini cashed in all four, forcing the Fords to chase the game the entire way.

For the game, the Cavs had five EMO tallies - the eventual margin of victory. That's not to say Cabrini wouldn't have scored a couple of all-even goals during that time, but who knows? A strong game from goalie Jake Mendlinger would also go along way to help the Haverford cause. But even that may not be enough. Steve Colfer has built his team the right way, and now they are not only experienced but also talented. They will be a handful at home.

Should we expect Haverford to be able to flip the script three weeks after the first meeting and on the road this time? I don't think so.

LMO Predicts: Cabrini 11, Haverford 9

Denison (14-2) at Gettysburg (15-2) - 1 p.m.
The feeling is a little different in the North, but there seems to be this prevailing attitude that Salisbury vs. Gettysburg in the South semifinals is a forgone conclusion. I'd say there is a pretty good chance of that happening, but if showdown was going to be derailed it could be this game. Denison is playing at an extremely high level and come from a conference to which many are reticent to give credit. This is usually a recipe for me to pick the upset.

Unfortunately for the Big Red, they won't be able to sneak up on Gettysburg. The Bullets already received of Denison's game when they beat the Big Red, 9-5, on March 8. In that game, Gettysburg was forced to cling to a 6-5 lead with 12 minutes remaining before putting it away. And that game was two months ago. Denison is certainly better and Gettysburg has rebounded from its odd loss to Franklin & Marshall. I'm going with the Bullets, but I will not be surprised with the upset.

LMO Predicts: Gettysburg 11, Denison 10 (OT)

Western New England (14-4) at St. Lawrence (11-2) - 2 p.m.
A year after finally arriving on the national stage with a bang, Western New England has had a tumultuous follow-up. It started with a change of conferences, and continued with records of 2-2 and 7-4 midway through the year. The Golden Bears were finally able to put it together down the stretch and now boast a seven-game streak. St. Lawrence had an equally slow start, stumbling out to an 0-2 mark before rattling off 11-consecutive wins.

So who's more primed for this contest? It will come down to contrasting styles and which team can control the flow of the game. WNEC, with its six 20+ goal scorers, wants to keep the game moving. The Saints would love to turn this into a game of half-field sets. The pace of the game will likely come down to who wins the face-off battle, which is a toss-up heading into Saturday - WNEC's Travis Brown wins 67.6% of his face-offs; SLU's P.J. Santora is at 60.9%. Unlike last year, the Golden Bears are flying under the radar, a spot that suits them better.

LMO Predicts: Western New England 14, St. Lawrence 11

Ohio Wesleyan (10-6) at Salisbury (18-0) - 7:30 p.m.
The fact that Ohio Wesleyan stayed within four goals of Salisbury during the regular season certainly raised some eyebrows. As I look back on that game, something else strikes me: the two teams combined for 28 penalties for a total of 24 minutes in the box. With as much is at stake, I doubt the two teams will be as chippy (and mouthy) as they were in the first tilt, but the important question is who will benefit from a cleaner game?

The answer to that one is pretty obvious. With the amount of talent Salisbury can place on the field they should be at a tremendous advantage against anyone, especially if everyone is healthy. That's not to say Ohio Wesleyan won't be able to put up a good fight, but in the end they won't be able to stack up. And they'll be in good company.

LMO Predicts: Salisbury 15, Ohio Wesleyan 8

SUNDAY
Lynchburg (16-2) at Washington College (13-3) - 1:30 p.m.
If I'm Lynchburg coach Steve Koudelka, I'm wondering to myself what it takes to get a home seed in the tourney, but after last year's snub, he probably won't waste too much time on it. Washington College is a fomidable enough opponent at home or on the road. Chris Read (46g, 23a) and Kolyn Kirby (38g, 28a) give the Shoremen a one-two punch that will keep the Hornets busy all afternoon.

Busy, but not distracted. And Lynchburg has some assets of their own, including Stephen Weis, Tyler Tolson and Ryan Cranston, who all boast at least 34 goals. At the positions where this game will ultimately decided - goalie and face-off middie - the scales tip enough in the Hornets favor to carry them to the next round. Garrett Curran is having an All-American caliber season (5.97 GAA, 64.7 Sv%) in net while Norby King is ripping 63 percent of his draws. Their WAC counterparts, goalie Gordan Cohen and middie Thayer Damm are solid, but not quite to the Hornets level.

LMO Predicts: Lynchburg 14, Washington College 10

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Email Jac Coyne.